Digital dirt: ai-driven synthetic data for soil carbon verification models
Pecan Street and the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC) propose using AI and machine learning to fill critical data gaps that limit soil carbon verification models. By generating synthetic backfill data and building a benchmark dataset, the project enables more accurate, affordable, and scalable soil carbon sequestration estimates for carbon market participants.
Overview
Pecan Street, in collaboration with the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC), is developing an AI and machine learning approach to overcome the data limitations that currently undermine soil carbon verification. Soil carbon sequestration is difficult to measure because soils are heterogeneous, existing datasets are incomplete, and affordable in-situ soil carbon sensors are not yet widely available. These gaps constrain the accuracy and market utility of leading carbon models such as DSSAT, DayCent, and COMET-Farm.
This project applies AI techniques proven in biomedical research, satellite management, and object detection to soil carbon estimation. The core idea is to map heterogeneous datasets into a unified ontological schema, infer granular values at scale from small samples, and generate synthetic backfill data that can train and calibrate soil carbon models. The result is a more reliable, low-cost estimation tool that supports carbon offset markets, regenerative agriculture programs, and climate policy decisions.
Technical specifications
Key features:
- AI and machine learning models trained on existing ground-truth soil measurements to generate synthetic backfill data for data-sparse regions and time periods
- An ontological schema that harmonizes heterogeneous soils, weather, and management datasets into a single, scalable framework
- A benchmark dataset designed to validate and compare outputs from DSSAT, DayCent, and COMET-Farm models
- Usability characterization of model outputs using metrics such as accuracy, precision, and error ranges, confirmed with carbon market participants
- Iterative testing of the ontology to ensure scalability across soil types, geographies, and management practices
- Application of AI approaches previously validated by TACC in other high-impact domains
Technology readiness level
The concept was validated in 2020 through an AI for Soil Carbon Monitoring and Verification Working Group convened with TACC, where soils scientists, advanced computing experts, economists, and carbon offset market managers reached consensus on promising AI pathways. The proposed next phase is a collaborative research and development effort to construct the benchmark dataset, train ML models, and validate outputs against real-world measurements. The full project is envisioned at a $750,000 budget, with meaningful initial progress achievable within six months on a $100,000 research investment. The technology is currently at an early-to-mid research and development stage, moving from conceptual validation toward prototype demonstration and benchmark dataset release.
About Pecan Street
Pecan Street is a 501(c)(3) research and development organization based in Austin, Texas, that focuses on accelerating climate and conservation solutions through original data research and technology testing. They operate a unique, large-scale network of volunteer research participants whose homes are equipped with custom-engineered sensors to collect high-resolution, circuit-level data on electricity, water, and natural gas usage. By maintaining a commercialization lab and a massive, real-time energy and water database known as Dataport, the organization bridges the gap between technology, consumer behavior, and policy. Their work provides empirical, ground-truth data that is utilized by researchers, entrepreneurs, and major corporations to validate product performance and develop innovative energy systems.
This research infrastructure is critical for stakeholders addressing the climate crisis, as it provides the verifiable evidence needed to design effective technologies and policies. Pecan Street serves a global community, including over 2,000 university-sponsored researchers in more than 60 countries and dozens of industry partners in the solar, battery, and transportation sectors. By offering services such as subsidized product testing, rapid prototyping, and market intelligence, the organization helps startups and established companies navigate the complexities of product development. Through their data-driven approach, Pecan Street aims to optimize energy systems, reduce emissions, and conserve resources by transforming behavioral insights into actionable, scalable climate solutions.
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